商业化日报:新老用户分群变现潜力

请比较近30天新老用户分群在历史变现潜力上的差异,识别高潜与低效人群并给出验证方案

结论先看

近7日历史支付金额最新值为 44.90K,较上一周期上升7.1%。

业务摘要

分析窗口:2026-02-16 ~ 2026-03-17

数据来源:bytehouse / bigbangdatabase

生成时间:2026-03-18T11:19:06.122837

样本说明:共返回 28 行,预览 28 行;分析窗口:2026-02-16 ~ 2026-03-17

关键业务指标

指标最新值上一周期环比近7期均值
近7日历史支付金额44.90K41.94K7.1%44.37K
新用户近7日历史支付金额00-0
老用户近7日历史支付金额44.90K41.94K7.1%44.37K
近7日历史收银台进入量8.36K7.91K5.7%8.18K
新用户近7日历史收银台进入量00-0

假设验证

假设结论证据
假设A:近7日历史支付金额 的近期变化代表核心商业信号支持近7日历史支付金额最新值 44.90K,环比 7.1%。
假设B:近7日历史支付金额 已出现周级别结构变化支持最近7日均值 44.37K,前7日均值 49.15K,变化 -9.7%。
假设C:近7日历史支付金额 的变化主要由用户结构驱动支持新用户占比 0.0%,老用户占比 100.0%。
假设C:近7日历史收银台进入量 的变化主要由用户结构驱动支持新用户占比 0.0%,老用户占比 100.0%。

反例校验

反例校验提示:当前结论基于单一口径与当前时间窗,若渠道结构、版本或过滤条件变化,结论可能不稳定。

建议动作

证据明细

以下为证据样本(前 28 行)。

dtrow_cntnew_usersexisting_userspast_shop_browse_d7_sumnew_user_past_shop_browse_d7_sumexisting_user_past_shop_browse_d7_sumpast_detail_view_d7_sumpast_checkout_d7_sumnew_user_past_checkout_d7_sumexisting_user_past_checkout_d7_sumpast_payment_click_d7_sumnew_user_past_payment_click_d7_sumexisting_user_past_payment_click_d7_sumpast_payment_amount_d7_sumnew_user_past_payment_amount_d7_sumexisting_user_past_payment_amount_d7_sumcheckout_rate_d7pay_click_rate_d7
2026-02-16663977910584873216560321656251237701237765340653460400060400495.080.5279
2026-02-17639116694572173217570321757361257101257169040690466315066315349.19440.5492
2026-02-18623476684556633172250317225401275001275071680716872880072880318.750.5622
2026-02-19634997280562193136490313649281300501300576370763776597076597464.46430.5872
2026-02-206752010539569813052380305238271314201314277810778178422078422486.74070.5921
2026-02-217912818808603203039760303976311409801409884060840684883084883454.77420.5963
2026-02-227749215472620203087170308717461410401410487630876384428084428306.60870.6213
2026-02-237605713843622143137970313797251479201479291750917586395086395591.680.6203
2026-02-2571356117045965231762503176251414072014072859208592719710719711005.14290.6106
2026-02-266869310937577563174570317457813715013715820708207702350702351714.3750.5984
2026-02-276626910039562303253650325365201368901368981740817467948067948684.450.5971
2026-02-28655829496560863245660324566231342901342976930769365908065908583.86960.5729
2026-03-01636239697539263166310316631221284101284173900739063994063994583.68180.5755
2026-03-03544167237471792799960279996221104301104363250632556331056331501.95450.5728
2026-03-044605951804087925536802553682699970999758650586557612057612384.50.5867
2026-03-054158756693591822230202223021883440834451700517050205050205463.55560.6196
2026-03-064648364814000222790402279041882740827450830508350239050239459.66670.6143
2026-03-07607519080516712320360232036979500795047620476247707047707883.33330.599
2026-03-085990487535115123242102324213814408144478004780482960482962714.66670.5869
2026-03-094045841983626020611102061112760707607449004490460490460493803.50.5902
2026-03-103987343583551520164802016486756107561435404354439740439741260.16670.5758
2026-03-114004542173582820271502027156769007690444804448442450442451281.66670.5784
2026-03-124027843073597120640002064001078310783146240462444038044038783.10.5905
2026-03-134707450584201621960102196011084490844949780497845275045275844.90.5892
2026-03-146459192455534623358802335886841608416503205032453120453121402.66670.5979
2026-03-156182178365398525219402521943285760857650120501244885044885268.00.5844
2026-03-164158842113737724352902435292979070790747160471641940041940272.65520.5964
2026-03-174227955063677324935502493551583570835749680496844898044898557.13330.5945